The world is witnessing significant economic and political
transformations, it was difficult to forecast some time ago, and Tertsm
most important features in a big change in the specific weight of
countries and economic blocs in the global arena of political, economic
and other terms.
India was among the most powerful competitors for the possession of the
lead in the race to achieve the best figures for the development in
Asia.
While the Cold War years painted international alliances India, but the
last 20 years of development, India was transferred to the strong world
club after being ranked among the top three countries in the world for
growth in light of the world's crises, which seized control over the
four years. India is with the northern neighbor China, a driving force for the return of the global recovery.
Despite the difficulties faced by India to continue to achieve good
growth rates, but that the Indian economy has been achieved positive
figures, however, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said at a
conference of heads of government of the Indian states recently about
the government's economic plan in the period between 2012 and 2017
"should to emphasize that the goal of attaining growth rate of 8
percent, less than 6 percent in the first year is still an ambitious
goal. "
And
an end to the slowdown Singh, who faces criticism for years of rigid
policies to be released in September / September last more initiatives
bolder since taking office, which included cutting subsidies partly
diesel fuel prices and the opening of the retail sector and other
sectors to foreign investment.
India has been able to control the level of inflation thanks to the gradual decline in the prices of manufactured goods.
It did not change the level of inflation or the wholesale price index
(WPI) significant compared with the reading of the month of November
last year amounting to 7.24% or amounting to 7.18% in December. Analysts had expected a higher level of inflation to 7.44% after the increase in food prices and rising fuel prices.
Food prices in the last quarter of 2012 have risen because of the
drought spells, and poor infrastructure locally, and transportation
underdeveloped, but the weak demand abroad and domestically, and
continued to push manufactured goods for low prices. India announced last November of a new record low for the industrial production, amounted to -0.1% on an annual basis.
Indian industrial production has continued to decline since the end of
2010, and if it continues on its performance is below the required
level, the core inflation rate will continue to decline as well. Since the basic price equivalent to two thirds of the wholesale prices of a basket (WPI), inflation rate Vsiraja more.
Indian trade sector continues to retreat as well as the expansion of
the trade deficit in the past two years because of higher imports and
lower exports.
Thus, each of the weak industrial sector and sector performance is a
trade place additional pressure on the government and the Reserve Bank
of India to increase the reform measures and to reduce interest rates
again.
The challenges of the post - crisis
India continues to suffer because of the high rate of inflation, fiscal
deficit and growing, and exports slowing, raising the need for
political reforms.
While the government seems to live a political paralysis that he would
continue to the 2014 elections, in addition to suffering in an attempt
to control the fiscal deficit, India has come to rely on the central
bank to grant installment needed by the economy.
As the inflation rate was falling or steady since October / October
2012, the government and companies calling for the central bank to cut
interest rates, in order to encourage investment and thus support growth
began.
The total growth of the Indian economy in the first three chapters of
the quarterly in 2012 between 5.2% and 5.5%, which is much lower than
the growth rate achieved by the economy at the beginning of the year
2011 amounting to 9%.
It will keep inflation high, and higher than the rate targeted by the
central bank, between 4% and 5%, but the central bank may not be able to
wait until inflation reaches the target rate, as this decline may be
required for many years, while the economy is in urgent need of
recovery.
That is, if inflation is under control for a period of two months, it
is expected a reduction of the interest rate at the end of the first
quarter or the first half of this year.
At present, the central bank will continue urging that the government
to reduce fiscal spending and take related measures Bhanb offer, in
order to improve the infrastructure and means of transport, thereby
increasing the confidence of investors in India.
This information we have learned from the research department at Kuwait China Investment Company. It is a reliable and accurate information, but can not guarantee its accuracy and completeness.
Development in Asia Race
Retained both India and China, both of which have within their borders
two-thirds of the human census longest grudge since they were struggling
in the war in 1962 on a small area in the Himalayas, was the
short-lived war led to the fading hopes of India's then Prime Minister
Jawaharlal Nehru in the establishment of the fraternity of Indian
Chinese launched it "bye-bye".
Conflict to exist in South Asia is still standing despite the political
balances that India manufactured with China, Russia and the BRICS, in
spite of its democracy shaky, India has remained far behind in the open
race with China's economic development, where the average income more
than doubled in China, you need India strongly to join the Asian market,
led by China and Japan.
Similarly, India is trying again for peace with Pakistan over the
Kashmir issue, realizing they will not get foreign investment you need
as long as there was the possibility of nuclear war in South Asia.
According to Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, China
and India constitute the first competitor to America in Asia.
Bernanke called China and India to amend the national value of their
currencies so that the United States does not have to take action
against goods flowing from Asia.
For her part, Christine Lagarde, director of the International Monetary
Fund, India and China demanded economic reforms graduating from the
Department of totalitarian economy where "cash their policies remained
opaque and protectionist," she said.
According to official figures China got $ 52.7 billion in foreign direct investment last year.
While India got only 4 per cent of that amount, or 3.2 billion, but
economists Indians re-evaluation of both India and China figures for the
year to make a comparison fairer. They found that the volume of FDI in China has fallen by half, at which time it almost doubled three times the Indian figure.
However, even on this basis, India was still attracts only 40 per cent
of foreign investment went to China's size, that much of the gap is due
to Chinaa abroad (Overseas) in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia and
America.